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Bureau of Mines Information Circular/1987 



The Impact of Advanced Materials 
On Conventional Nonfuel Mineral 
Markets: Selected Forecasts 
for 1990-2000 

By Ronald F. Balazik and Barry W. Klein 




UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 




Information Circular 9150 

ii 

The Impact of Advanced Materials 
On Conventional Nonfuel Mineral 
Markets: Selected Forecasts 
for 1990-2000 

By Ronald F. Balazik and Barry W. Klein 



UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR 
Donald Paul Hodel, Secretary 

BUREAU OF MINES 

David S. Brown, Acting Director 



As the Nation's principal conservation agency, the Department of the Interior has 
responsibility for most of our nationally owned public lands and natural resources. 
This includes fostering the wisest use of our land and water resources, protecting our 
fish and wildlife, preserving the environment and cultural values of our national parks 
and historical places, and providing for the enjoyment of life through outdoor 
recreation. The Department assesses our energy and mineral resources and works to 
assure that their development is in the best interests of all our people. The 
Department also has a major responsibility for American Indian reservation 
communities and for people who live in island territories under U.S. administration. 

M 
no. <\\so 




Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data 



Balazik, Ronald F. . 

The impact of advanced materials on conventional nonfuel mineral 
markets. 

(Information circular; 9150) 

Bibliography: p. 15 

Supt. of Docs, no.: I 28.27: 9150 

1. Nonfuel minerals industry — United States — Forecasting. 2. Aluminum industry and 
trade — United States — Forecasting. 3. Steel industry and trade — United States — 
Forecasting. 4. Glass trade — United States — Forecasting. 5. Plastics industry and 
trade — United States — Forecasting. 6. Ceramic industries — United States — Forecasting. 
7. Substitution (Technology)— Forecasting. I. Klein, Barry W. II. Title. III. Series: 
Information circular (United States. Bureau of Mines); 9150. 

TN295.U4 [HD9506.U62] 622 s [338.4'0973] 87-600233 



For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office 
Washington, DC 20402 



CONTENTS 



in 



Page 

Abstract 1 

Introduction 2 

Objective of study 2 

Study methodology 2 

Acknowledgments 3 

Industry analyses and forecasts 3 

Motor vehicle manufacturing 3 

Plastics 3 

Ceramics • 5 

Forecast computations 5 

Aerospace industry 5 

Aircraft composites versus automotive 

composites 6 

Costs of composites and metal in aircraft .... 6 

Advantages of composites 6 

Use of composites in airframe 6 

Use of composites and ceramics in jet engines 7 

Highest performance composites 8 

Forecast computations 8 



Page 

Building and construction 8 

Discussion 8 

Forecast computations 9 

Pipe and conduit 9 

Siding 9 

Windows 10 

Packaging industry 10 

Metal cans 10 

Bottles 11 

Flexible packaging 11 

Drums 11 

Substitution among different types of 

packaging 11 

New developments 11 

Forecast computations 11 

Heavy machinery and equipment production ... 12 

Summary and conclusions 13 

Substitution forecasts 13 

Conditions influencing substitution 14 

References 15 

Appendix. — Definitions and background discussion 

of polymers and advanced ceramics 17 



TABLES 

Page 

1. Substitution by plastics in U.S. motor vehicle manufacturing: 1985, 1990, and 2000 4 

2. Substitution by plastics in the U.S. construction industry: 1985, 1990, and 1995 9 

3. Summary of identified substitution by advanced plastic materials in five major U.S. industries 13 

A-l. Major U.S. markets with significant competition between plastics and metals or glass, 1985 17 

A-2. Projected U.S. shipments of advanced ceramics, by end use 18 



IV 





UNIT OF MEASURE ABBREVIATIONS USED IN THIS REPORT 


ft 


foot 


MMst 


million short tons 


ft 2 


square foot 


MM$ 


million dollars 


gal 


gallon 


MMlb 


million pounds 


h 


hour 


Mst 


thousand short tons 


in 


inch 


oz 


ounce 


L 


liter 


pet 


percent 


lb 


pound 


pct/yr 


percent per year 


lb/ft 


pound per foot 


St 


short ton 


min 


minute 


yr 


year 



THE IMPACT OF ADVANCED MATERIALS ON CONVENTIONAL NONFUEL 
MINERAL MARKETS: SELECTED FORECASTS FOR 1990-2000 



By Ronald F. Balazik 1 and Barry W. Klein 2 



ABSTRACT 

The introduction of "high-tech" materials such as new polymer composites 
presents significant competitive challenges and opportunities in conventional mineral 
markets. Moreover, rapid advances in materials science are critical to the resolution of 
important economic and strategic issues, including national competitiveness and 
import dependence. This Bureau of Mines study examines the displacement of 
conventional nonfuel mineral materials by certain new materials, specifically 
advanced plastics and ceramics. Analyses of substitution by plastics are conducted for 
five major U.S. industrial sectors: motor vehicle manufacturing, aerospace applica- 
tions, building and construction, packaging, and heavy machinery production. Based 
on interviews with more than 60 scientists, executives, and other professionals 
engaged in materials development and sales, forecasts of substitution by plastics 
during the 1990's are made for aluminum, steel, and glass. In addition to these 
forecasts, study findings identify key factors that will influence the emergence of 
advanced materials in the next decade. 



'Minerals specialist. 

Economist. 

Division of Minerals Policy and Analysis, Bureau of Mines, Washington, DC. 



INTRODUCTION 



The United States is facing dramatic changes in 
materials development and use. New "high-tech" mate- 
rials, such as advanced plastics and ceramics, 3 are 
winning markets that traditionally have been dominated 
by conventional nonfuel mineral materials, particularly 
metals and glass. This competition presents unique 
challenges and opportunities for the nonfuel minerals 
industry as well as implications for national materials 
policy. 

The past decade has been quite extraordinary for 
materials science. Advanced computers, powerful mathe- 
matical models, and more precise analytical tools have 
enabled scientists to examine and control properties of 
materials as never before. Moreover, stringent design and 
performance requirements by manufacturers of sophisti- 
cated products in highly competitive world markets have 
driven greater demands for new, improved materials. A 
1986 review (41)* stated- 
Some of the mining industry's metal develop- 
ment associations have recognised this 
change but they receive little support from 
the industry itself. It is up to the miner/ 
refiner to test and confirm that a particular 
metal and/or alloy is the right material for 
an application. If the mining industry is to 
succeed in the next decade, it is essential 
that 'we recognise that we are in the 
"materials business." 

Growth of the knowledge and information sector has 
combined with technological change to enhance materials 
science far beyond its status of just a few years ago (61). 

Traditionally, materials needs have been met by 
adapting existing natural substances. Now, entirely new 
synthetic materials are created by rebuilding, their 
molecular structures. The creation of new materials 
atom-by-atom is a significant departure from the conven- 
tional sequence of extraction, purification, and combina- 
tion. 

In summary, modern materials science is characte- 
rized by three features that distinguish it from the past. 
First, new materials are being developed at a more rapid 
pace; technology and competitive pressures are accelerat- 
ing the substitution process. Second, by working at the 
molecular level, scientists now can create new materials 
for specific properties and uses rather than modifying 
existing materials; parts are redesigned and manufactur- 
ing processes are changed to accommodate the new 
material. Third, materials development now requires a 
much wider range of expertise and scientific knowledge; 
plant design engineers and assembly line specialists must 
work with materials scientists to reduce total product 
costs. 

These developments in materials science have led to 
the advent of remarkable new substances that are 
challenging standard materials in many of the latter's 
traditional markets. Conventional nonfuel mineral mate- 
rials, especially metals, are bearing the brunt of competi- 
tion from several advanced materials, particularly rein- 
forced plastics and optical fiber. Light and durable plastics 



3 See appendix for definitions and background descriptions of the specific 
advanced materials examined in this report. 

4 Italic numbers in parentheses refer to items in the list of references 
preceding the appendix. 



and polymer composites are substituting for metals and 
glass in the motor vehicle, aerospace, and packaging 
industries. Optical fiber may one day supplant copper as 
the premier medium used in telecommunications, and 
electrically conductive plastics now under development 
eventually may displace metal wire in electronic circuits 
(20). In addition, advanced ceramics are being developed 
for high-temperature environments that previously were 
the sole domain of metal alloys. The impact of such 
developments will grow substantially over the next 
decade. 

Despite the broad challenge from new materials, 
examination of their competitiveness with nonfuel miner- 
als to date has been limited to several studies focused on a 
few individual commodities or industry sectors. Among 
the most prominent of these studies are Department of 
Commerce assessments of the advanced ceramics, fiber 
optics, and polymer composite industries (65-67); howev- 
er, except for the competition between optical fiber and 
copper, these government studies are not concerned with 
effects on conventional mineral-based materials. 



OBJECTIVE OF STUDY 

This study has a twofold objective. First, this report is 
intended to forecast the substitution of conventional 
metals and glass by new plastic materials in major U.S. 
industrial sectors during the 1990's. Second, this report 
identifies key factors expected to influence the emergence 
of advanced materials in new markets over the next 
decade. The substitution of aluminum, steel, and glass by 
plastics is forecast for domestic motor vehicle manufactur- 
ing, aerospace applications, building and construction, 
packaging, and heavy machinery and equipment produc- 
tion. In addition, the impact of advanced ceramics on 
metal demand in the motor vehicle and aerospace sectors 
is examined. 



STUDY METHODOLOGY 

Much of the information in this report is based on 
interviews with more than 60 scientists and officials in 
industry and Government that have direct knowledge of 
new materials development and marketing. The inter- 
views encompassed corporate and Government profession- 
als ranging from high-level executives and research 
directors to laboratory personnel, engineers, information 
specialists, marketing analysts, plant chiefs, distributors, 
retailers, and trade association representatives. The 
private sector interviews covered new materials producers 
and companies operating in markets that consume large 
amounts of nonfuel mineral materials (e.g., automobile 
manufacturing, construction, aerospace industries^. Gov- 
ernment interviews included staff members of Federal 
agencies in the Department of Defense, Department of 
Commerce, and Department of Energy. Detailed notes 
documenting all of the interviews are on file with the 
authors. 

The interviews, supplemented by a literature search. 
were used to forecast trends in substitution during the 
1990's and the year 2000. Forecasts were made for the 
entire plastics industry and for five major industrial 




sectors: motor vehicle manufacturing, aerospace, building 
and construction, packaging, and heavy machinery 
production. 

Interviews, rather than a review of the literature, are 
the basis of this study for two reasons: First, the 
interviews provided more information on factors affecting 
market trends and future relationships between new 
materials and their competitors. Second, the interviews 
provided information on the latest developments in 
materials innovation and market entry that had not yet 
appeared in the literature. Thus, interviews were viewed 
by the authors as the better method for eliciting the most 
current and appropriate information needed for this 
report. 

Essentially, the interviews for this study were 
designed to (1) identify trends in new materials develop- 
ment or substitution, and (2) determine what factors 
influenced these trends. An average of 12 informed 
sources were interviewed for each of the 5 industrial 
sectors cited above. The judgment of these sources 
regarding both trends and influencing factors were 
discussed with them and compared with those of their 
peers. Interviewees were questioned about any differences 
beetween their forecasts and others. Where differences 
could not be reconciled or a consensus was not achieved, a 
forecast range is presented. 



Except where indicated otherwise, the forecasts 
herein are intended to show only the minimum amounts of 
nonfuel minerals expected to be replaced by new 
materials. The estimates of substitution are conservative 
because (1) data were not available for calculating 
replacement in all markets where new materials are 
competing, (2) when there was uncertainty about what 
materials were competing (e.g., plastics against wood or 
steel in furniture), the market in question was not 
forecast, (3) conservative substitution rates were deliber- 
ately used in calculating trends to offset any excessive 
claims by new materials producers, and (4) new, more 
competitive materials are being developed at a pace which 
may exceed that of improvements in conventional 
materials. More details on substitution calculations are 
provided for each industry in the "Industry Analyses and 
Forecasts" section. 

One caveat must be made regarding the interview 
methodology: the opinions expressed by the interviewees 
represent their personal, subjective assessments of current 
and future events. Nevertheless, their judgments were the 
considered views of professionals with many years of 
experience and responsibility in materials design and 
marketing. Moreover, the authors have tried to present 
the rationale given for forecasts and have attempted to 
show the full range of different projections obtained from 
the interviews. Thus, readers can judge for themselves the 
plausibility of the projections presented. 



ACKNOWLEDGMENTS 



The authors wish to thank the many industry and 
Government professionals cited in this report for their 
valuable information used to develop substitution fore- 
casts. In particular, the authors would like to extend their 
appreciation to several Bureau of Mines employees 
including Frederick Schottman, physical scientist, Divi- 
sion of Ferrous Metals, Washington, DC (steel estimates); 
Louis Sousa, economist, Division of Minerals Policy and 
Analysis, Washington, DC (materials technology assess- 
ment); and Murray Schwartz, Manager of Materials 
Research, Division of Materials and Recycling Technolo- 
gy, Washington, DC (advanced ceramics forecast evalua- 
tions). 

The authors also wish to acknowledge the assistance 
of several individuals who provided valuable technical 



data for particular materials and industries. These 
persons include Jerry Fanucci (aerospace materials), R. 
Nathan Katz (advanced ceramics), and Jerome Persh 
(aerospace industry); these Department of Defense mate- 
rials engineering personnel are located respectively at the 
Army Natick Laboratory, Natick, MA; the Army Mate- 
rials Technology Laboratory, Watertown, MA; and the 
Office of Research and Engineering, the Pentagon. In 
addition, the authors also wish to thank David Cole, 
assistant professor, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 
MI, for his assistance on motor vehicle forecasting, and 
Roy Sjoberg, materials manager, Chrysler Corp., Detroit, 
MI, for his assessment of composite materials in auto- 
mobiles. 



INDUSTRY ANALYSES AND FORECASTS 



This section contains separate analyses of substitu- 
tion by plastics in five major U.S. industrial sectors: motor 
vehicle manufacturing, aerospace applications, building 
and construction, packaging, and heavy machinery and 
equipment production. The analyses include substitution 
forecasts and discuss conditions that will influence this 
substitution in the 1990's. 



MOTOR VEHICLE MANUFACTURING 
Plastics 

Car and truck manufacturing represents the largest 
potential domestic market for high-performance plastics 
because the industry produces a great number of motor 



vehicles 5 that could incorporate sizable quantities of these 
materials. Approximately 10 million U.S. automobiles 
and trucks are expected to be built in 1990 (8). Thus even 
a small increase in plastics used per car or truck 
translates into a large total increase in plastics consumed 
by the motor vehicle industry. 

Table 1 indicates the amount of plastics substituting 
for steel in the manufacture of U.S. automobiles during 
1985 and forecasts displacement of steel by plastics for 
motor vehicle production in 1990 and 2000. These forecast 
quantities are based on interviews and documents that 
project the level of car and truck production, the average 
weight of the vehicles, and the share of each vehicle 
accounted for by plastics and steel. Note that "downsizing" 
of vehicles accounts for some of the declines shown for 
steel but does not appear significant enough to cause all of 
the decrease. This is compatible with interview comments 
that plastics will replace metals for many uses in the 
domestic motor vehicle industry. 

Table 1.— Substitution by plastics in U.S. motor vehicle 
manufacturing: 1985, 1990, and 2000' 



Vehicle type 



Steel displaced by plastics, MMst 



1985 



1990 



2000 



Automobiles and vans . . 

Compact and light pickup 

trucks 



1.3 1.6-2.2 2.5-7.1 

NA .18 .23 



NA Not available. 

'See "Forecast computations" section for calculations used to derive these 
data. 

Plastics use grew significantly in U.S. motor vehicle 
manufacturing during the past 10 yr ¥ but further growth 
will not be dramatic until the 1990's. This is consistent 
with auto industry officials' forecasts that plastic outer 
body panels or "skins" for cars will not be used in 
significant quantities until the early 1990's. Currently 
only GM's Pontiac Fiero and Chevrolet Corvette have 
plastic (fiberglass) skins, and both of these are low- 
production-model cars. In 1989, several GM cars are 
expected to have plastic fenders, rocker panels, and grille 
opening panels, i.e., partially plastic skins (28). Plastic 
have the advantage of lighter weight and superior 
corrosion resistance, which even two-sided galvanized 
steel may not match in performance. 

Use of additional plastics under the hood (some 
plastics are already being used for such parts as radiator 
headers and master hydraulic cylinder reservoirs) is 
expected to trail their use for outer body panels for several 
reasons. To design and manufacture firewalls, floor pans, 
and sidewalls with plastics rather than metal requires 
composite materials that have high-temperature resist- 
ance, low flammability, etc. These relatively expensive 
materials are closer to aircraft composites than to car skin 
composites in both performance and cost. Plastics manu- 
facturers (Du Pont, General Electric, Celanese) must 
reduce costs before composites can replace metal in 
under-the-hood, high-temperature applications. In addi- 
tion to high costs, the threat of liability lawsuits from 
using "plastic parts", perceived as inferior by much of the 
public, has been an impediment more difficult to overcome 
than some of the technical performance problems faced. 
(As will be discussed below, this liability-lawsuit threat 
has also been a serious obstacle to increased composites 
use in aircraft, especially passenger airliners.) 

5 The term, "motor vehicles," in this report refers to automobiles, vans, 
and light (pickup) trucks; "automobiles," as used here, includes vans. 



Excluding the engine block, which will remain 
predominantly metal into the 21st century, 6 the frame and 
other structural parts area is probably the last area where 
plastics will substitute for metal. Not only are expensive 
composites (closer to aircraft composites in performance 
and cost) needed for strength, but there is a major problem 
to be solved in joining plastic (composite) frame parts 
together. Currently the only chassis parts made of 
composites are graphite-epoxy leaf springs in the Chev- 
rolet Corvette. However, fiber-reinforced plastic wheels, 
which are 20 percent lighter than aluminum wheels, are 
now being marketed (19). Although two graphite- 
reinforced drive shafts are being tested on vehicles 
experimentally, metal drive shafts are expected to be used 
for many years. 

The following factors will affect the amount of plastics 
used per car: 

1 . The costs of both the plastics and the steel that they 
replace, and in addition the cost of other materials, such as 
aluminum and magnesium, that compete with plastics in 
replacing steel. — For outer body panels, galvanized sheet 
steel is $0.44 per pound and composites are $1.20 to $1.50 
per pound. 

2. The cost of designing and manufacturing plastic car 
parts versus steel, aluminum, or in a few cases, magnesium 
carports. — Determining this cost involves several interre- 
lated considerations. Tooling costs are considerably 
higher for producing metal parts than plastic parts. 
However, this higher initial cost can be offset given a 
sufficiently long production run, since the metal parts 
production rate may be 16 times faster than the plastic 
(fiberglass) parts production rate (500 metal parts versus 
30 plastic parts per hour). Thus 1 million units of one 
fender type (long production run) favors metals, whereas 
250,000 favors plastics. The break-even point in metal 
versus plastic car part costs reportedly is 300,000 to 
500,000 units (but closer to 500,000) of one part type. In 
addition, although low production runs increase overhead 
per part, plastic parts reduce overall labor costs and/or 
assembly time because several (and in some cases many) 
metal parts often can be replaced by one integrated plastic 
part. Given these factors, one car company official said 
that if the plastic part production rate can be doubled to 60 
parts per hour, plastics can be competitive with steel 
despite being much more expensive than steel. The 
deciding variable may then be the length of the production 
run, and the expected trend toward shorter production 
runs for many car models would favor plastics. Needless to 
say, steel companies are aware of the serious threat 
plastics pose in the automotive market, and the steel 
industry is making more capital investment in electrolytic 
galvanized high-strength steel production in response to 
this competition (31). 

3. The prices of oil and gasoline. — Higher oil and 
gasoline prices would increase demand for, and lead to 
increased production of, lighter weight, more fuel-efficient 
cars that contain additional weight-saving plastics. 
However, this trend would be partly offset by higher 
plastics prices, reflecting higher oil-based plastic feed- 
stock prices. 

4. The ability of plastics to meet high-performance 
requirements (high-temperature resistance andor high 
strength) for under-the-hood and frame parts, which is a 
safety issue as well. 

5. Changing consumer tastes and preferences. 

s However. Amoco and Polimotor are testing a plastic Y6 engine with 
metal lining the pistons and other high-wear surfaces U9>. 



6. The economic feasibility of recycling automotive 
plastics. — The inability to recycle plastics profitably could 
seriously restrict their use in motor vehicles since millions 
of "junk" autos in need of recycling are generated each 
year. 

A few additional comments about plastics use in cars 
should be made. First, additional plastics use in cars will 
coincide with the introduction of new car models, where 
retooling would be necessary in any case, even if the parts 
continued to be made of metal. Second, as a materials 
research scientist specializing in composites stated, 
thermoplastics, as opposed to thermosetting composites 
(see the appendix definitions), may represent the only 
serious competition to metals in cars because the 
composites production rate is too slow for automobile 
production rates. This is consistent with the above 
statement by an auto industry official that if the plastic 
part production rate were doubled, then plastics would be 
competitive with steel. Third, car company officials 
express some concern that, unlike steel, which represents 
a secure source of raw material for motor vehicles, 
plastics, being oil-based, are vulnerable to oil shortages, 
such as occurred in the 1970's when the U.S. was more 
dependent on OPEC oil. 

In conclusion, the wide forecast range for substitution 
by plastics in the 1990's within the motor vehicle industry 
(table 1) reflects uncertainties regarding the interaction of 
all the complex factors described above. 



Ceramics 

The thermal strength and hardness properties of 
advanced ceramics have given these materials significant 
potential for application in car and truck engines. 
However, ceramic coatings and parts are just beginning to 
be introduced by the motor vehicle industry and will not 
seriously compete with conventional materials in this 
sector for a decade or more. 

The most near-term uses likely for advanced ceramics 
are items such as turbocharger rotors, piston rings and 
pistons, cylinder liners, and small stationary parts {65). 
Coatings and smaller parts will be introduced first. 
Currently, the Nissan 300 ZX has engineering ceramics in 
the turbocharger (55), and Isuzu has small engine 
components containing ceramics. Wear-resistant ceramic 
seals in engine water pumps are already widely used on a 
commercial scale. The U.S. Army is testing a Cummins 
diesel engine truck that has a ceramic-insulated cast iron 
(engine) block. Kyocera Corp. of Japan has built a 
prototype diesel engine with ceramic pistons, cylinders, 
and heads; it is claimed that the engine, which needs no 
cooling system, can operate for 500,000 miles (19). One 
U.S. auto executive predicted that by 1997 ceramics would 
be used in high-heat areas of the power train, such as the 
turbocharger, in domestic cars. 

In general, the outlook is for ceramic parts or 
ceramic-coated metal parts to be introduced gradually 
into high-heat areas of motor vehicle engines. Ceramics 
for insulation, coatings, and small engine parts are 
expected to be introduced in at least one U.S. diesel truck 
line and in some Japanese cars during the early 1990's 
(33). 

Engines with ceramic blocks as well as small ceramic 
parts are being tested and demonstrated both in Japan 
and the United States but will not be commercially 



feasible until early in the next century. 7 Although en- 
gineered structural ceramics can withstand very high 
temperatures, they are subject to catastrophic failure 
(extensive fracture) because of their brittleness. Much 
research remains to be conducted on advanced ceramics to 
reduce the chance of catastrophic failure. Well beyond 
year 2000, lightweight ceramic engines (compared to cast 
iron engines) may be produced that reduce the weight of 
the motor vehicle further by operating at high, fuel- 
efficient temperatures with no radiators. 

Forecast Computations 

For each forecast year, the expected average weights 
(28, 40, 45, 74-75) of both domestically produced cars and 
light trucks were multiplied by estimated production 
levels (8, 22, 27, 43) of these vehicles and combined with 
the predicted percentage of plastics in the individual 
vehicles produced (16, 27, 40, 43, 45, 56, 64, 75). For 
example, estimates of domestic car production (7.4 million 
units), average new car weight (2,150 lb), and plastic 
component of car weight (20 pet) were combined to 
indicate the lower end of the total plastics used (3.2 
billion lb) for U.S. automobile production in 2000. Such 
calculations were performed separately for automobiles 
and vans and for light trucks because the weight, 
production levels, and shares of material per vehicle 
varied considerably between these two categories. Fore- 
cast ranges, rather than a single predicted amount, are 
used where differences among sources could not be 
reconciled. 

The quantities of steel replaced by plastics in a given 
forecast year were derived for table 1 by multiplying the 
amount of plastics calculated above by a factor of 1.6, 
which is considered a conservative steel-to-plastic weight 
ratio for materials used in the industry (21, 57). 
Information used to compile table 1 indicates that the 
amount of steel used per vehicle will decline more sharply 
than average vehicle size during the forecast period. Thus, 
the predicted decrease in demand for steel must be 
attributed to more than the production of smaller vehicles. 
The use of more plastics in car and truck manufacturing is 
considered to be the primary cause of the decrease beyond 
"downsizing," although the use of other substitutes (e.g., 
aluminum, high-strength steels) is a contributing factor. 



AEROSPACE INDUSTRY 

This discussion is focused almost entirely on aircraft 
manufacturing, which is by far the largest materials- 
consuming part of the aerospace industry, 8 and the sector 
for which most information is obtainable. The two 
primary categories of aircraft are civilian and military. 
Civilian aircraft include passenger airliners (e.g., Boeing 
and McDonnel Douglas), general aviation (smaller busi- 
ness, personal, and utility aircraft such as Cessna, Beech, 
and Piper), and helicopters. Of the dozen military aircraft 
types, major categories include fighters, bombers, attack, 

7 One source, however, has indicated that automotive engines built 
entirely of ceramics could be a commercial reality in the early 1990's. In 
any case, if engines made of ceramics are standardized and put into mass 
production, the demand for these materials would easily surpass all other 
uses combined. 

^The aerospace industry consists of aircraft, guided missiles, and space 
vehicles (including engines, equipment, and parts needed for these craft.) 
Industry shipments totalled $97 billion in 1986 (34). 



and cargo-transport. In recent years, the number of 
civilian aircraft shipped has been as much as three times 
that of the military, yet the value of military aircraft 
shipments has been double that of civilian aircraft. 

Aircraft are divided into three general components for 
purposes of discussion: the airframe, the engine(s), and 
the avionics (aviation electronic devices and equipment). 
The airframe can be further divided into primary 
structures such as wings and fuselage, the failure of which 
could result in the plane crashing, and secondary 
structures (doors, flaps, slats) that are less important to 
aircraft safety. Between these categories is the empen- 
nage or tail assembly, which can sustain some damage 
and still enable the aircraft to land. (The tail assembly 
consists of vertical and horizontal stabilizers, including 
the fin, rudder, and elevators.) 

Aircraft Composites Versus Automotive 
Composites 

Plastic composites (see the appendix definitions), the 
principal materials replacing metal in aircraft manufac- 
turing, vary considerably from those used for motor 
vehicles, both in their higher quality and performance and 
in their attendant greater cost. For example, aircraft 
fiberglass, made with high-strength S-glass fibers, costs 
about $10 per pound; while fiberglass for cars and boats, 
made with weaker E-glass fibers, costs about $1.50 per 
pound. Similarly, aircraft graphite-epoxy is made of 
high-strength graphite fibers tightly woven into cloth and 
costs $20 to $50 per pound, while lower strength and/or 
lower quality unwoven graphite fiber-epoxy for boats and 
cars costs a fraction of this price. Other "plastic" aircraft 
composites include Du Pont aramid fiber Kevlar-epoxy at 
$10 to $25 per pound, high-temperature-resistant bis- 
maleimide at $75 per pound, and thermoplastics with 
glass reinforcing fibers, which are expensive but have no 
established market prices as yet. (These thermoplastics are 
more expensive than graphite, but their prices are 
anticipated to come down through economies of scale 
when they are produced in large quantities.) As may be 
expected, the higher prices of aircraft composites reflect 
the greater labor and longer times needed (compared to 
car composites) at each stage of processing and/or 
manufacturing. For example, not only does tightly woven 
graphite cloth take longer to make than unwoven 
graphite fibers, but the curing process for graphite-epoxy 
aircraft parts takes from a minimum of 2 h to as long as 10 
h (counting an 8-h post cure) compared with 15 min for 
graphite-epoxy car parts. 

The lower production rate of aircraft versus motor 
vehicles permits greater use of longer cure composites in 
aircraft manufacturing. The much higher prices of, and 
much longer processing times permitted for, aircraft 
composites allow for their far greater variety vis-a-vis 
motor vehicle composites. It is in the aerospace sector that 
new state-of-the-art composites will be developed, rather 
than in the motor vehicles sector where the goal is largely 
to increase the plastic parts production rate and reduce 
the cost of already existing plastics. 

Costs of Composites and Metal in Aircraft 

Overall composite costs are similar to those of metal 
for aircraft. Initially the composites are more expensive 
than the metal they replace, but these higher material 



costs are offset by savings in faorication and assembly 
costs. In fabrication, composites, unlike aluminum, 
require no machining. An example will illustrate assem- 
bly cost savings. A particular metal helicopter requires 
11,000 rivets (as fasteners). The cost of machining the 
rivet, drilling and inspecting the hole, installing the rivet, 
and rechecking after installation is $10 per rivet. By 
contrast, the composites used to build the helicopter can 
be glued together (with epoxy) for one-tenth the cost. (In 
this latter case only a small number of mechanical 
fasteners are needed.) 

Advantages of Composites 

Composites such as graphite-epoxies have several 
advantages over the aluminum they replace in the 
airframe. Probably the most significant of these is the 
lighter weight of composites: aluminum parts generally 
weigh about 1.3 times as much as the composites that 
substitute for them. The lighter weight enables the 
aircraft to have a longer range and/or bigger payload, and 
increased maneuverability and/or speed. In some cases 
composites also have higher strength than aluminum, 
which can also improve maneuverability. For military 
aircraft, longer range and/or bigger payload and greater 
maneuverability and/or speed are considered crucial; for 
civilian aircraft, the main advantage is the increased fuel 
efficiency, i.e., lower operating cost, which is expected to 
offset the higher prices of composite parts compared with 
aluminum. Other advantages include savings in fabrica- 
tion and asssembly costs. 

Use of Composites in Airframe 

Relatively little experience in the use of composites 
compared with metals in aircraft means that composites 
will initially be used mainly in secondary structures, i.e., 
doors, flaps, slats, and part of the tail. As experience is 
gained in their use, composites will gradually be 
incorporated into more primary structures. 

Passenger airliners are just beginning to incorporate 
composites into their airframes. Although Boeing 757 and 
767 aircraft are said to make "extensive" use of 
composites, such materials comprise less than 5 pet of 
their airframes; it is extensive use, therefore, only in a 
relative sense, i.e., previous passenger airliners had 
almost no composites. 

There are numerous reasons, in addition to relative 
lack of experience, why, despite their advantages, compos- 
ites will only slowly be introduced into aircraft, especially 
into passenger airliners. The passenger airliner manufac- 
turers have huge investments in metalworking machin- 
ery and equipment; therefore, they would prefer to use 
this machinery as long as it will last, i.e., 20-plus years (in 
airliner manufacture). Also, these companies do not want 
to risk a hasty conversion to composites in case some 
problem in their use that has not revealed itself in the 
short or medium term emerges in the long run. In 
addition, advances such as aluminum-lithium alloys, 
which are 10 pet lighter in weight than aluminum, extend 
the time in which metals can compete with composites. 

In manufacturing military aircraft, unlike passenger 
airliners, the companies are reimbursed for the cost of 
machinery to make composite parts under military 
contract. Reflecting this, the military has been quicker to 
introduce composites into aircraft where performance is 



given a higher priority than costs, and passenger airliners 
have trailed behind because of cost constraints. Another 
factor contributing to the more rapid adoption of 
composite parts by the military is that the certification 
and approval of each new aircraft part (after undergoing 
testing) by the Federal Aviation Administration (re- 
sponsible for civilian aircraft certification) is a much 
slower process than is the military system of certification. 

Several managers and scientists in the aerospace field 
have indicated that the largest impediment to use of 
composites in passenger airliners is not of a technical 
nature, but rather the threat of liability; i.e.", lawyers for 
plaintiffs in plane-crash lawsuits could call the composites 
"plastic parts," capitalizing on the image of inferiority 
that plastics may have among the public. 

Differences between military and private sector 
aircraft manufacturing regarding the certification, reim- 
bursement, and liability factors discussed above contri- 
bute to the greater use of composites in fighter and attack 
planes. In contrast to the very small percentage of 
composites in a passenger airliner (less than 5 pet of the 
airframe weight), military aircraft airframes average 10 
to 15 pet composites {44), and one aircraft, the AV-8B (the 
second generation of the British Harrier "jump jet"), 
already incorporates 26 pet composites (mainly graphite- 
epoxy) (66). The composites' share of airframe weight in 
military aircraft is forecast to average 25 pet within 5 to 
10 yr (44), the advanced tactical fighter (ATF) in the 
mid-1990's will have 50 pet composites, and some designs 
of future military aircraft would use as much as 
60-pct-composite airframes (21). Estimates of the extent to 
which composites will substitute for aluminum in military 
aircraft range from 20 to 70 pet of the airframe weight 
(32). This wide range reflects the high degree of 
uncertainty in predicting future technological develop- 
ments for composites, their costs, and their acceptance, 
and in foreseeing long-term problems, if any, that may 
develop with composites. 9 

Beyond the year 2000, it is forecast that the next 
generation fighter plane (i.e., the generation after the 
ATF) will have a 100-pct-composite airframe, except for 
metal landing gear struts (29). 

On the other hand, composites use for bombers and 
cargo-transport aircraft trails far behind that for fighter 
and attack aircraft. For example, the B-1B bomber's 
airframe is less than 5 pet composites, one reason being 
that it was designed 15 yr ago. Similarly the C5-B Galaxy 
(replacing the C5-A), which is one of the world's largest 
transports, is almost all metal (airframe). Also, the C17 or 
C18, which will replace the C130 Hercules transport, was 
originally designed with no composites, but now will 
incorporate small amounts of composites in the secondary 
structure. 

In summary, the percentage by weight of the military 
airframe made of composites averages more than twice 
that of civilian airframes. 10 For the many reasons cited 
above, military aircraft can be expected to continue to lead 
civilian aircraft in t he u se of composites. 

'It should be noted, however, that the first military application of 
composites was boron-epoxy used in the tail of the F-14 fighter in 1971, and 
there has been no problem of the material degrading. (Boron is no longer 
used in aircraft because it is difficult to work with and more costly than 
graphite.) 

10 One exception is Beech Aircraft's new Starship (general aviation 
airplane), which has a 100-pct-composite structure except for metal 
landing gear struts and engine. However, this one model represents a very 
small fracton of all general aviation planes, and these, in turn, are a small 
share of the total civilian aircraft value, most of which is accounted for by ' 
passenger airliners. 



Use of Composites and Ceramics in Jet Engines 

Unlike the airframe, where composites have already 
substituted for aluminum in sizable quantities (at least on 
some military aircraft), the engine area presents technical 
and/or performance problems more difficult for composites 
to overcome. The high-temperature environment of jet 
engines prevents the use of composites such as graphite- 
epoxy (which can withstand temperatures of 350° F) 
because the high heat causes layers of the composite to 
separate, i.e, become unglued. The problem is compounded 
because this damage usually is undetectable on the 
airplane and can only be seen through laboratory 
examination. (Thermoplastics are more damage-tolerant 
than epoxy composites, but they too cannot withstand the 
high temperatures.) However, bismaleimide resin, which 
can withstand at least 450° F and possibly as high as 600° 
F, is an advanced engineering plastic that replaces 
titanium in some of the latter's relatively high- 
temperature engine applications noted below. A specific 
example of bismaleimide's use is in the AV-8B Harrier 
jump jet's tilt nozzles used for hovering. 

For jet aircraft engines, titanium rather than alumi- 
num is used for structures around engines, air ducts, and 
less intense heat applications in engines. Nickel- and 
cobalt-base superalloys (made from nickel, cobalt, chro- 
mium, molybdenum, columbium, and tantalum) are used 
in the hottest sections, such as the turbine blades. Not only 
can these metals (especially the superalloys) withstand 
much higher temperatures than currently developed 
composites, but also, unlike damage to composites, metals 
cracking or fracturing is generally detectable on the 
airplane in advance of failure. 

Turning to engineered ceramics, it is expected that 
with the exception of their possible use as coatings, 
ceramics will not be used in jet aircraft engines until well 
into the next century. Unlike plastic-matrix composites, 
engineered ceramics retain strength at very high temper- 
atures. However, they also are subject to catastrophic 
failure because of their brittleness. With the current state 
of technology, this characteristic of sudden, virtually total 
fracture means that ceramic engine parts pose an 
unacceptable risk of engine failure and resultant loss of 
life. One possible answer to this problem is ceramic 
coatings of superalloy metal parts, where the structural 
integrity of the part is ensured by the underlying metal 
should the coating fail. Ceramic parts will be used in 
stationary and unmanned gas turbines and in drones and 
missiles where their failure would not result in loss of 
life. These uses will provide significant experience for 
more high-risk applications. 

Although advanced ceramics are not expected to be 
used in jet aircraft engines until well beyond the year 
2000, they offer advantages that almost ensure their 
eventual use. Engineered ceramics, like polymer compos- 
ites, are lighter in weight than the metal they replace. 
Turbine blades composed of ceramics (instead of super- 
alloys) can be made lighter in weight, which in turn 
means the turbine blades will be connected to a smaller, 
lighter shaft, and smaller (and lighter) bearings will 
suffice, etc. Thus, there is a "cascading benefit," or 
spillover effect, in that the lighter weight of one group of 
parts (turbine blades) permits use of other smaller, lighter 
parts (shaft, bearings, etc.), resulting in a total weight 
savings of several times the initial decline in weight from 
using ceramic turbine blades. In addition to their light 
weight, advanced engineering ceramics have other desir- 



able physical and chemical properties, including resist- 
ance to heat, wear, and corrosion. 

In conclusion, jet aircraft engines are the last bastion 
of metals, i.e., the last area where metals will be replaced 
by, in this case, engineering ceramics. For ceramics to be 
used in this application, they must be made much tougher, 
i.e., they must be able to absorb much more energy before 
fracturing. Technological advances to achieve this greatly 
increased reliability may require many years of research. 

Highest Performance Composites 

There are several types of composites that represent 
the leading edge of materials technology. These categories 
of materials, some of which are relatively expensive, 
include ceramic reinforcement-metal matrix composites, 
carbon fiber-metal matrix composites, and carbon fiber- 
carbon matrix composites. An example of the first type is 
silicon carbide particle-metal matrix composites, which 
are lighter in weight than the almost 100-pct-pure metals 
they replace, are heat-resistant, have good thermal 
stability (i.e., little expansion or contraction), and cost 
somewhat over $10 per pound. An example of the second 
type (and at the other end of the cost scale) is a carbon 
fiber-aluminum-magnesium matrix costing thousands of 
dollars per pound and used in the space program where 
weight savings more than make up for the cost of the 
material. One such carbon-metal composite for optical and 
communications use in the space program has superior 
thermal stability, costs as much as $50,000 per pound, and 
represents the frontier of materials technology. The third 
type, carbon-carbon composites, like engineering cera- 
mics, can withstand extremely high temperatures. 
However, unlike ceramics, they oxidife in an environment 
such as a jet engine. Work is underway on developing 
protective coatings for these materials, but it is expected 
to be at least 5 yr before suitable coatings are produced 
(44). 

In conclusion, some metal matrix composites repre- 
sent state-of-the-art technology, and these composites 
offer opportunities for metallic minerals to regain 
markets previously lost, if not develop new ones. Of 
course, the metal consumed per unit of product generally 
is less for metal composites than for virtually pure metals. 

Forecast Computations 

Calculations based on data collected for this report 
indicate that, for passenger airliner manufacturing, only 
500 st of aluminum was displaced by plastic materials 
(essentially polymer composites) in 1985. This amount 
accounted for less than 5 pet of the aluminum used in the 
airframes of these craft. However, at least 4,000 to 11,000 
st of aluminum, accounting for 20 to 60 pet of consumption 
for airframes, is expected to be replaced by plastics in 
airliners for any given year in the 1990's. The procedures 
followed to calculate this substitution are described below. 
Note that the substitution estimates are limited to 
passenger airliner manufacturing, which may account for 
only one-third of all materials consumed in the aerospace 
industry. The preceding discussion of the industry 
provides information on current materials substitution in 
many areas beyond the airliner sector. However, some 
data needed to estimate future military, missile, and 
space programs are highly classified and therefore are not 
available for a forecast. Nevertheless, in view of the 



foregoing industry discussion, it is not unreasonable to 
expect these sectors to easily exceed the pace of 
substitution predicted for passenger airliner production. 11 

For the 1985 airliner estimate given above, the 
combined weight (1,35) of every type of passenger airliner 
manufactured in that year was identified and multiplied 
by 0.7 12 to obtain the total airframe weight produced. This 
total was then multiplied by the percentage share 
(approximately 4 pet) of airframe weight accounted for by 
composites as estimated by various sources (32, 44, 62-63, 
73). The result of these computations was multiplied by a 
factor of 1.3, which is the approximate weight ratio of 
aluminum (21 ) 13 to composites used in the aircraft 
industry. This final step indicates the estimated amount of 
aluminum currently displaced by composites in airliner 
manufacturing. 

For the forecast covering the next decade, a 3.3-pct 
annual growth rate to 1990 was applied to the total 1985 
airframe weight. (This increase is predicted by the 
Department of Commerce (34) for aircraft equipment, 
including airframe subassemblies, over the next 5 yr. 14 ) 
The 1990's airframe weight obtained from the computa- 
tion was then multiplied by the lower and upper limits (25 
and 65 pet) forecast for composites as a percentage of 
airframe weight during that period (32, 62, 73). The 
resulting range of composite weights was then multiplied 
by the 1.3 weight ratio cited above to indicate the amount 
of aluminum that could be displaced. 

BUILDING AND CONSTRUCTION 
Discussion 

Several businesses in the U.S. construction industry 15 
that customarily have been important consumers of metal 
are increasing their demand for plastics. Principal among 
these consumers are firms that manufacture pipe and 
conduit, siding for buildings, and windows for residential 
housing. Other building trade applications in which 
plastics are competing with conventional mineral mate- 
rials include interior and exterior moldings, doors, 
plumbing fixtures, and insulation (60). 

Lighter weight, lower fabrication costs, design flex- 
ibility, and maintenance ease are features that have 
promoted demand for plastic in construction materials 
and will continue to spur its use by builders over the next 
decade. According to a recent report (54) — 

The use of plastics in construction has risen 
steadily since the mid-1960s, when plastic 
products represented only 2 percent of total 



"Although airliner manufacturing apparently used less than 1 million 
lb of composites and reinforced polymers in 1985. the Society of Plastics 
Industry reports that the entire aerospace industry consumed 37 million lb 
of these materials in that year [60). If all of these composites have replaced 
aluminum, over 23,000 st of aluminum have been displaced. 

12 The airframe (described earlier) accounts for about 70 pet of airliner 
weight (71) and is that part of the craft where composites and engineering 
plastics are replacing metals. 

13 As noted in the preceding discussion of the industry, aluminum is 
virtually the sole rival of composites for the airframe. 

14 The forecast may be conservative because the Federal Aviation 
Administration estimates that air passenger traffic will climb at a 
compound annual rate of 4.5 pet through 1995 {34). 

15 As used here, the domestic construction industry includes all private 
sector building and public works programs. During 1986. private 
residential and nonresidential construction totaled about $280 billion, 
while publicly funded building (roads, bridges, etc.) reached $62 billion 
(36). 



building materials consumed. By 1981, mar- 
ket share had jumped 10 percent, or 6.5 
billion pounds valued at $5.7 billion . . . 
Gains will be most rapid during the 1980s, 
then moderate (as housing starts decline and 
some product markets approach saturation). 

The report forecasts that exterior plastic products will 
exhibit the most rapid growth — over 7 pct/yr — owing to 
cost differentials between these products and those made 
of metal. Also according to the report, the consumption of 
plastic pipe, the strongest challenge faced by metals in 
construction, will reach 5.5 billion lb annually by 1995. 

As shown in table 2, forecasts of substitution by 
plastics have been estimated for ductile iron, steel, and 
aluminum used to produce piping, siding, and window 
frames. Currently, these items account for slightly less 
than half of the plastics utilized by the building industry 
(60). Most of the remaining plastics for construction 
compete with nonmineral materials, particularly lumber 
and wood products. 

Table 2.— Substitution by plastics in th U.S. construction 
industry: 1985, 1990, and 1995 

Substitution 1985 1990 1991 

Metal displaced by plastic pipes and 
conduit, MMst: 

Iron in sewer lines 1 .95 NA 3.65-5.10 

Steel and iron in drain, waste, and vent 

pipes 0.25 NA 0.34-0.43 

Steel in conduit 0.29 NA 0.34-0.58 

Metal displaced by vinyl siding, Mst: 

Aluminum 25.3 NA 63.6 

Steel 6.7 NA 20.5 

Aluminum displaced by plastic window 
frames Mst . . 12 24 NA 

NA Not available. 

Steel and ductile iron for conduit and for drain and 
sewer pipe account for most of the metal that is expected 
to be replaced by plastics in construction during the early 
1990's. Most of the gains against metals will be made by 
plastic piping (predominantly polyvinyl chloride) within 
buildings and as underground water and drain lines in 
urban areas (70). Plastic pipe already accounts for over 80 
pet of all rural mains laid today (replacing cast iron and 
vitreous clay pipe), but thus far has captured only about 
40 pet of municipal markets (70). Delays in modification of 
local plumbing and building codes to permit the use of 
plastic have retarded conversion in these areas (70). 

In the siding business, aluminum is the metal that 
faces the greatest competition from plastic (primarily 
vinyl) (25). Steel presently accounts for only 3 pet of the 
market, a share that is not expected to change much in the 
next decade (52). Aluminum, however, is expected to lose 
about 5 pet of its current market by 1995, and most of this 
loss can be attributed to substitution by plastics (52). 

Aluminum also faces a strong challenge from plastics 
as a material used to fabricate window frames for houses 
and other residential structures. Currently, plastic (pri- 
marily vinyl) has a 15-pct share of the residential 
replacement window business and accounts for about 6 pet 
of the total residential window market (1 7, 51). 1 * Forecasts 
of demand growth for plastic window frame materials 
range from 10 to 20 pet per year through 1990 (46, 51). 
Although aluminum is expected to remain dominant in 
the commercial and office building market, it is losing 
about 5 pet of its residential window market each year to 

16 We estimate that residential window space accounted for 57 pet of the 
total window area in all buildings constructed during 1985. 



plastics and is forecast to be a small factor there by the 
year 2000 (53). 

In addition to substitution of the metals discussed 
above, plastics are beginning to compete with copper and 
glass as construction materials. Small-diameter (1-in or 
less) plastic pipes are being used in place of copper 
pressure piping within buildings and homes as fresh 
water lines. Building trade distributors and retail outlets 
contacted for this study indicate that plastics account for 
less than 5 pet of sales in this category but are becoming 
more competitive (9, 26, 27). In addition, transparent 
plastics (primarily acrylics) have penetrated some flat 
glass markets, but are not expected to advance much 
further unless their prices decrease and problems with 
ultraviolet light stability and abrasion resistance are 
overcome (47). 

Forecast Computations 

Using data from industry and government sources, 
the procedures described below were followed to calculate 
the forecasts shown in table 2. 

Pipe and Conduit 

Two methods of calculating substitution were used to 
provide a cross-check and forecast range for pipe and 
conduit materials. First, an estimate of total domestic pipe 
consumption for the construction industry in 1995 (4.0 
billion ft) was obtained (50). The source of this estimate 
also indicated that plastic pipe would increase its market 
share to 55 pet (currently 45 pet) for all uses including 
construction. In addition, it was assumed that the 
proportions of plastic pipe used to compete against steel 
conduit, steel and iron drains and vents, and ductile iron 
sewer lines would be the same as the average for the last 5 
yr for which data were available (1980-84). 

By combining this information with estimated 
weights of plastic, steel conduit, and iron pipe (10, 24, 37, 
57-58),the lower end of the forecast range was computed 
for table 2." For example, 4.0 billion ft x 0.55 x 0.125 
(proportion of plastic pipe used as conduit between 1980 
and 1984) x 2.5 lb of steel per foot of conduit = 344,000 st 
of steel conduit demand replaced by plastic pipe use in 
1995. 

The second approach used to calculate metal pipe 
replacement provides the upper end of the range shown in 
table 2. The basis of this approach was sources that 
indicated that plastic pipe and fittings for construction 
would increase at 6 to 7 pet annually to 5.52 billion lb in 
1995 (48). The same 1980-84 competitive proportions cited 
above were assumed to be constant. These data and the 
weights of plastic used for conduit, drain, vent, and sewer 
pipe then were used to calculate the lengths of plastic pipe 
consumed in these categories in 1995. Weights of 
equivalent lengths of steel conduit and iron and steel 
drains and sewer lines then were used to calculate the 
higher forecast in table 2. 

Siding 

Current displacement of aluminum and steel siding 
by vinyl siding is estimated from market share data for 

"Weight estimates used for pipe calculations are as follows: plastic 
conduit, drain-vent, and sewer lines are 1.5, 2.0 and 3.5 lb/ft, respectively; 
steel conduit and drain- vent lines are 2.5 lb/ft and ductile iron sewer lines 
are 18.5 lb/ft. The steel and iron weights are based on smaller than average 
pipe sizes to avoid exaggerated substitution estimates. 



10 



1984, the latest information available (72). These data 
indicate the following siding market shares for that year: 
aluminum, 17 pet; steel, 3 pet; vinyl, 14 pet; other 
materials (primarily wood and asphalt), 66 pet. Thus, 
aluminum and steel account for 20 and 3 pet, respectively, 
of all nonplastic siding materials. Based on these 
percentages and confirmation by interview sources, it is 
estimated that at least 20 pet of the current plastic market 
•once belonged to aluminum and roughly 3 pet previously 
was occupied by steel (11). These percentages of the 1984 
vinyl siding market (563 million ft 2 ) equate to 112.6 
million ft 2 of aluminum and 16.9 million ft 2 of steel. The 
estimated 1985 tonnages shown in table 2 are based on 
these figures and the quantities of aluminum or steel 
needed per unit area of siding produced. 18 

One source indicates that by 1995, aluminum and 
steel would lose an additional 5 and 1 pet of their current 
markets, respectively (52). However, plastics use is 
expected to increase and account for 81 pet of all market 
share growth by 1995 (52). Total siding of all materials is 
forecast at 4.25 billion ft 2 (52). Thus, 5 pet of 4.25 billion ft 2 
multiplied by 0.81 was used to indicate the additional 
amount of aluminum siding that would be lost in 
competition with plastic by 1995. Substitution for steel 
was calculated in a like manner. 

Windows 

The forecast substitution of aluminum by plastic for 
windows uses the following data obtained from industry 
sources: (1) Total number of aluminum residential 
windows (19 million) installed in 1985 (17); (2) number of 
plastic-frame windows (2 million) replacing aluminum 
windows in 1985, with annual growth rate (15 pet 
minimum) of the former to 1990 (13, 46, 51, 53); and (3) 
amount of metal (12 to 15 lb) in aluminum residential 
windows (17). With these data, the amount of aluminum 
replaced by plastic was calculated for the residential 
replacement window market. For example, 2 million 
window frame units in 1985 with 15 pet growth 
compounded annually reaches 4 million units in 1990; 4 
million units at 12 lb each equals the tonnage shown in 
table 2. Additional aluminum markets would be lost if 
plastics are improved for use in windows for commmercial 
and office buildings. 



PACKAGING INDUSTRY 

The U.S. packaging industry 19 is the one sector 
analyzed in this report where plastics are displacing 
significant amounts of glass as well as metals. This 
substitution is occurring primarily in the soft drink 
container market, which accounts for about one-third of 
all can and bottle demand. In the remainder of the 
packaging industry, plastics compete with other materials 
(e.g., paper and paperboard) in addition to metals and 
glass, as discussed below. 

Packaging is the largest market for plastics, account- 
ing for 12.7 billion lb or 28 pet of polymers sales in 1985 
(60). However, these are virtually all "commodity" 
plastics having low unit value, so their total value in 

18 Each 100 ft 2 of metal residential siding uses approximately 45 lb of 
aluminum or 80 lb of steel (17, 57). 

19 The packaging industry has two basic types of products: (1) rigid 
containers (e.g., bottles and cans) and (2) flexible bags, wraps, and liners. 
Industry shipments in 1985 totaled $64 billion; nearly 40 pet of this was 
accounted for by paperboard (59). 



packaging may be less than that of the engineering 
plastics used in transportation, where only one-sixth as 
much of the material was sold this same year (60). For 
example, plastics for packaging may cost about $0.40 per 
pound, while those in automobiles cost several times as 
much ($1 to $2 per pound), and aircraft plastics are about 
100 times as costly ($20 to $50 per pound). 

Metal Cans 

Seventy percent of all metal cans are for beverages 
and another 25 pet are for food. (Beverage cans are almost 
evenly divided between beer and soft drink use.) Until the 
1950's, virtually all cans were made of tin-plated steel (the 
so-called "tin can"). Since that time, aluminum has made 
steady inroads, capturing 94 pet of the beverage can 
market from steel (2). The reverse percentages are true for 
food cans; i.e., steel retains 94 pet of this market and 
aluminum has the remaining 6 pet (6). 

Since 1979, "cans and containers" has been alumi- 
num's largest end use, in which it has several advantages 
over steel: (1) Aluminum cans are much lighter (about 
one-third the weight of steel cans), (2) they are seamless, 
unlike some steel cans that have welded or glued seams 
(soldered seams are being phased out), and (3) aluminum 
cans are easily recycled; in fact, more than half of this 
metal is reused. 

In spite of these advantages, aluminum must over- 
come some technical problems before being used on a large 
scale in the food can market. In contrast to beverage use, 
where carbonation provides the necessary internal pres- 
sure to prevent collapse of aluminum cans, food cans, 
contain not such pressure (in fact, they have a vacuum). 
To prevent collapse, structurally strong aluminum food 
cans must be built with higher strength aluminum alloys 
and improved designs. One way of introducing internal 
pressure is to inject liquified nitrogen into the can just 
prior to sealing, where it warms up rapidly, evaporates, 
and produces gas pressure (2). Some in the can industry, 
especially executives in the aluminum industry, think 
these technical problems faced by aluminum food cans 
will be solved, thereby displacing steel in this market. 

Although many in the container industry feel that 
beverage cans are a relatively secure market for alumi- 
num, there are others who believe that plastic cans now 
being test-marketed for soft drinks will replace aluminum 
cans there. Despite the likely attraction of transparent 
plastic cans to consumers, these containers are more 
costly than aluminum cans and are not as easily recycled 
(18). 

Can industry forecasts are less certain than those in 
the motor vehicle and aircraft industries, where compos- 
ites (plastics) are more likely to continue replacing steel 
and aluminum, respectively. Producers in the can 
industry do not have a consensus on which materials will 
gain and which will lose market shares. 

The metal can market is forecast to only grow about 1 
pct/yr, paralleling the growth in population. Beverage 
cans are anticipated to grow at a higher rate (2 to 3 pet yr) 
as the population has been increasing its consumption of 
soft drinks and correspondingly decreasing its use of 
coffee. Some think that this substitution of soft drinks for 
coffee has run its course, but others believe that added 
health concerns about coffee, higher coffee prices, etc.. 
could mean further substitution (.higher soft drink usage \ 

Partly offsetting this beverage can growth, the food 
can market is expected to decline slightly for several 



11 



reasons. These include reduced preparation of food at 
home due to smaller families and more working mothers; 
more use of frozen foods, partly because microwave ovens 
have increased the convenience of these foods by reducing 
their cooking time, 20 and larger consumption of food 
outside the home (6). 

Bottles 

Plastic bottles have made significant inroads into the 
soft drink market at the expense of glass because they 
have two advantages: plastic bottles are lighter in weight 
and far less susceptible to breakage than glass bottles. 
Both of these attributes reduce handling costs, and lighter 
weight also reduces fuel consumption costs in shipping. 

The vast majority of plastic soft drink bottles used 
thus far have been in the 1- to 3-L size, and most of these 
were 2-L bottles. Smaller 16-oz and V2-L plastic bottles 
have been test-marketed in limited areas. The problem 
with these smaller bottles is loss of carbonation through 
the plastic wall (technically called inadequate "barrier 
properties" of the plastic), which reduces shelf life to an 
unacceptable level except in large cities, where quick 
turnover of inventory minimizes this problem (6). 21 

Glass bottle manufacturers are responding to the 
threat of substitution by using thinner glass-walled soft 
drink bottles covered with plastic foam in the 16-oz and 
V2-L sizes to reduce weight and breakage, respectively. 
These glass bottles are competitive, if not cheaper, in 
price, than similar size plastic bottles, and glass, unlike 
plastic, has no problem of inadequate barrier capabilities. 

Also, traditional glass bottle makers have diversified 
into plastics. Owens-Illinois Inc., one of the largest and 
first to diversify of the glass container manufacturers, 
derives 25 pet of its sales from plastic containers (23). Ken- 
Glass Manufacturing Corp. also has entered the plastic 
container market (18). 



Flexible Packaging 

Flexible packaging includes plastic bags, liners, films, 
aluminum foil, paper, cardboard boxes, and combinations 
of these. It is the largest plastics-consuming category 
within the packaging sector, accounting for almost 
one-half of all plastics consumed in this market. The 
advent of the microwave oven has led to use of plastic 
dishes, trays, and lids for frozen foods at the expense of 
aluminum trays and foils. Consequently, the aluminum 
industry has been trying to develop a microwavable 
aluminum. In some cases the two materials are combined; 
for example, bags and "aseptic" 22 bottles are composed of 
aluminum foil laminated with plastic. 

Drums 

Drums are large steel, paperboard, cardboard, or 
plastic containers varying in capacity from 5 or 10 gal to 
more than 100 gal. Bulk chemicals are often shipped in 
drums, but chemicals in liquid form would generally not 

20 Microwave ovens have also been responsible for the growing use of 
plastic dishes for frozen dinners at the expense of aluminum trays as 
discussed in the "Flexible Packaging" section below. 

21 This carbonation loss is only a minor problem for the 1-L size and 
virtually no problem for the larger size bottles. 

22 Aseptic packages are discussed below in the "New Developments" 
section. 



be sold or stored in the paperboard or cardboard type. 
These containers require much more steel, plastic, etc., 
per unit than smaller cans and bottles do, yet because far 
fewer of these drums are produced, the total quantity of 
material consumed in their manufacture is probably less 
than for cans and bottles. In this segment of the packaging 
market, drums composed of plastic increasingly are 
displacing those made of steel. 

Substitution Among Different Types of Packaging 

Some complications should be mentioned, although 
they can be difficult to analyze and/or quantify. Not only 
do aluminum and steel cans compete against each other 
and plastic bottles, but cans also substitute for glass 
bottles and jars, and all of these compete against paper 
containers (e.g., frozen juices in paper "tubes" or cans, 
frozen vegetables in cardboard boxes, etc.). Aseptic 
packages (see following discussion) compete as well, and 
plastic cans, should they prove commercial, will also 
compete. As a final example, plastic bags for frozen 
vegetables compete against paper boxes, steel food cans, 
and a relatively small quantity of glass jars. Therefore, 
while aluminum cans are the largest competitor of steel 
cans (and plastic bottles are the largest competitor of glass 
bottles), competition among all of these types of containers 
significantly complicates market forecasts. Moreover, 
customer preference for these container materials depends 
largely on consumer tastes that are not amenable to 
analysis. 

New Developments 

Polymer manufacturers are conducting R&D to try to 
solve the problem of carbonation loss from plastic 
containers by making the bottles up to eight layers thick 
(7). In addition, "aseptic" packages made of aluminum foil 
laminated with plastic are capable of keeping milk and 
fruit juices or drinks fresh for 6 months without 
refrigeration. Utilizing an "ultra-pasteurization" process 
from Sweden, these containers in small sizes (e.g. 8 oz) 
have been growing in popularity since their introduction 
several years ago in this country; in Europe, they have 
been available for many years. 

In January 1986, Aluminum Co. of America (Alcoa) 
and Metal Box America, Inc., agreed to form a joint 
venture in the United States to develop and produce 
plastic food containers. About $100 million is to be 
invested in the venture over the first 3 yr, with each 
company having a 50-pct interest (3). Metal Box America 
is owned by Metal Box PLC, Britain's largest food, 
beverage, and aerosol container supplier. Improving the 
barrier capabilities of plastic packages to prevent loss of 
carbonation, infiltration of oxygen, and migration of 
moisture through the container wall has been under 
development by Metal Box (3). This is an example of 
Alcoa's strategy in recent years to diversify beyond 
aluminum to polymeric materials and thereby protect 
and/or increase its share of the packaging market should 
plastics displace aluminum. Thus, substitution of metal 
by plastics may represent opportunities as well as 
challenges to Alcoa. 

Forecast Computations 

Based on information compiled for this report, it is 
possible to estimate substitution of plastics for glass and 



12 



metal in the rigid container sector of the packaging 
industry. In this sector, plastics compete with glass, metal 
(aluminum and steel), and paperboard primarily for use in 
bottles and cans. For this market it is estimated that 
plastics will displace approximately $386 million of glass 
containers and $223 million of metal containers in 1990. 
This displacement accounts for about 7 pet and 2 pet of the 
1985 glass and metal container market, respectively. 

In addition to the above forecast, estimates of 
substitution by plastics were made for the soft drink 
container market, the largest single market for plastic 
bottles. One-fifth of all plastic bottle and can shipments in 
1985 were used in this market, where plastic competes 
primarily with glass and aluminum. 23 

The soft drink sector is one of the few rigid container 
markets predicted to grow appreciably, but it is expected 
to increase no more than 2 pct/yr through this decade (7). 
For the same period, the Department of Commerce 
estimates that plastic bottle production will increase 4 
pct/yr, while metal can shipments will grow 1 pct/yr and 
glass bottle output will decline 0.5 pct/yr (6). Thus, it 
appears that most of the predicted plastics increase will 
erode glass and aluminum container markets rather than 
merely expand with growing soft drink demand. The 
estimated maximum amount of glass or aluminum that 
would be displaced by plastics in the soft drink market 
follows, in million short tons: 





1990 


1995 


Glass 

Aluminum 


7.8 
47 


10.9 
.66 



The data shown for the forecast years are not cumulative. 

The quantities shown for glass and aluminum 
displacement in the soft drink sector should not be 
combined to represent total substitution by plastic. 
Instead, each figure is intended to show only the 
maximum amount of glass or aluminum that would be 
displaced if each material alone was to compete with 
plastic. If current trends continue, glass will suffer more 
than aluminum in competition with plastic bottling. 
However, not enough information is available for a more 
precise differentiation among these competitors regarding 
substitution. 

Different methods were used to make the preceding 
rigid container and soft drink market forecasts. For the 
rigid container forecast, Department of Commerce data on 
1985 rigid container sales (59) and growth rates (6) were 
combined to estimate the value of glass and aluminum 
market shares that will be lost to plastics in 1990. 24 These 
calculations indicate that, by 1990, total bottle and can 
sales will reach $29 billion; and that the market share for 
plastic bottles will increase 2.1 pet as shares for glass and 
metal decline by 1.9 and 1.1 pet, respectively. Plastic 
accounted for 70 pet of all market share increases 
computed. 25 Thus, 70 pet of the market share losses for 
glass and metal are attributed to plastics growth. For 
example, the figure that represents market losses by 
glass between 1985 and 1990 equals 0.7 of 1.9 pet 
multiplied by $29 billion. 

23 Aluminum represented 94 pet of 1985 beverages can production; the 
remainder is accounted for by steel (2). 

"Plastic bottle shipments in 1985 totaled about $4.3 billion (59). This 
value indicates, at least approximately, the magnitude of the market 
already lost by glass and metal. 

^Paperboard represents the remaining growth. 



The soft drink container forecast was developed by 
combining data that indicate the number of plastic bottles 
shipped in 1985, plastic container industry growth to 
1990, forecasts of 1995 plastic bottle output, and the 
amount of glass or aluminum needed to match the total 
capacity of plastic bottles produced (6-7, 15). Forecast data 
indicate that shipments of 16-oz plastic beverage bottles 
will grow from 870 million units in 1985 to 8.0 billion 
units in 1995, while shipments of 1- to 3-L (primarily 2-L) 
plastic bottles will increase from 4.1 to 5.5 billion units 
during the same period (15). The 1995 estimates are based 
on the total container capacity of the plastic bottle figures 
for that year and the amounts of glass or aluminum 
needed to produce an equivalent number of bottles and/or 
cans. 26 For 1990, the same capacity equivalents were 
applied to 1985 plastic bottle shipments increased by the 
compound annual rate of 4 pet cited above. Before volume 
equivalents were computed, 1990 and 1995 plastic bottle 
estimates were reduced by 10 and 20 pet, respectively, to 
account for growth in the soft drink market (2 pet per 
year), which would mitigate the impact of substitution. 



HEAVY MACHINERY AND EQUIPMENT 
PRODUCTION 

The heavy machinery and equipment industry 27 
consumed about 348 million lb of plastics yearly between 
1980 and 1985, primarily to replace metals. Although a 
small portion of plastics substitute for rubber in hoses and 
gaskets, most polymer materials are used to manufacture 
parts such as casings, shields, instrument panels, and 
housings formerly made from steel, cast iron, or alumi- 
num (39). The plastics are used to achieve lower costs 
based on lighter weight and ease of fabrication (39). 

The total impact of substitution by plastics in this 
sector can be measured to some extent, but available 
information is not detailed enough to permit much 
differentiation among the types and quantities of metal 
displaced. As the chief rival of plastics in the industry, 
steel reportedly is the metal most affected by the 
substitution underway there. Based on the density of 
various materials used, it is estimated that even' pound of 
plastic in the industry could displace about 4 lb of metal. 2 * 
Thus, during 1985, plastics may have displaced approx- 
imately 700,000 st of metal in the machinery, equipment 
and tool industry. This quantity is relatively small 
compared with substitution by plastics in other industry 
sectors examined for this report. Nevertheless, the 
0.7-million-st amount equals almost 7 pet of steel 
shipments for all machinery. 

Neither the literature search nor the interviews 
conducted for this study yielded specific forecasts for 
plastic in the machinery and equipment industry. 
However, Department of Commerce estimates indicate 
that all but a few sectors of the industry will grow by 

^Approximately 11.3 02 of glass or 0.6 oz of aluminum iJ?> is used to 
produce a 16-oz bottle or can. A 2-L bottle matches the capacity of 4.24 
16-oz bottles andor cans. 

-This sector encompasses producers of machinery, tools, and equipment 
for all industrial segments of the U.S. economy, including those examined 
in this report. 

-^The specific gravity of the most dense polymers used in the heavy 
machinery industry 1 reinforced thermoses is approximately 2.0. while 
the average specific gravity for steels is about 7.8 (38. 57. 601. If the 
dimensional thickness of plastics used in the industry is much greater than 
that of the metals replaced, the ratio of these specific gravities should be 
correspondingly reduced. 



13 



about 3 to 7 pet annually through 1990 (68). Assuming 
that at least the minimum growth rate of 3 pet will 
prevail, average yearly consumption of plastic in the 
industry could increase to as much as 403 million lb in 



1990. Using the steel-polymer density ratio noted above, 
this quantity of plastics equates to a displacement of 0.8 
million st of metal. 



SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 



The preceding analyses and the interviews with 
professionals in materials development and marketing 
indicate that advanced materials such as engineering 
polymers present dramatic challenges and opportunities 
for conventional nonfuel mineral producers. Substitution 
forecasts presented with the preceding analyses are 
summarized in table 3. Conclusions regarding these 
forecasts and key factors that will influence the emerg- 
ence of advanced materials during the 1990's are 
discusssed below. 

Table 3.— Summary of identified substitution by advanced 
plastic materials in five major U.S. industries 1 

Industrial sector 1985 1990 1995 2000 

Motor vehicle manufacturing: 
Steel displaced by 

plastics MMst.. 1.3 1.8-2.4 Nl 2.7-7.3 

Do pet .. 7-9 Nl Nl 8-19 

Passenger airliner manufacturing: 2 
Aluminum displaced by 
polymer composites 

Mst .. 0.5 Nl 4.0-11.0 

Do pet . . 3 Nl Nl 20-60 

Building and construction: 3 
Iron and steel displaced 
by plastics . . MMst . . 2.5 Nl 4.3-6.1 Nl 

Do pet .. 9 Nl 10-13 Nl 

Aluminum displaced by 

plastics Mst . . 37 Nl 64 Nl 

Packaging (bottling and 
canning), MM$: 
Glass displaced by 

plastics Nl 386 Nl Nl 

Metal (Aluminum and 
steel) displaced by 

plastics Nl 223 Nl Nl 

Heavy machinery and equipment: 
Metal displaced by 

plastics Mst . . 700 800 Nl Nl 

Do pet . . 5 5 Nl Nl 

Nl Not identified. 

'See "Forecast Computations" portions of "Industry Analyses and Fore- 
casts" section for an explanation of the estimates shown in this table. Data 
shown are not cumulative. 

2 Excludes military and private civil aircraft. For 1 985, it is estimated that over 
23,000 st of aluminum were displaced by plastic composites in the entire 
aerospace industry. 

'Displacement in pipe, tube, siding, and window markets. 

SUBSTITUTION FORECASTS 

1. Plastics 29 have made the strongest competitive 
advances of all materials against metals and glass in 
many markets and will continue to do so in the 1990's. 
Calculations based on information obtained for this study 
indicate that at least one-fourth of all plastics and resins 
produced domestically compete directly with nonfuel 
mineral materials (table A-l). These computations do not 
include those markets where plastics compete with so 
many other materials in addition to nonfuel minerals that 
displacement of the latter could not be measured with 
sufficient precision. If these markets were added to the 
calculations of plastics use, the total probably would 
indicate that well over one-third of U.S. plastics produc- 
tion competes with metal and nonmetal minerals. 

29 See appendix for definitions and descriptions of advanced materials 
examined in this report. 



2. As suggested by table 3, the 1990's will be a period 
of more intense competition between metals and poly- 
mers. Some automobile and aerospace executives believe 
that the outcome of this competition will determine which 
materials will be dominant within their industries in the 
21st century. Steel and aluminum are the major metals 
most likely to be affected. Polymer materials already have 
replaced about 7 to 9 pet of the steel consumed in domestic 
motor vehicle production and may displace more than 
double that amount by the year 2000. In the construction 
industry, it is estimated that polymers have replaced 
slightly less than 10 pet of the iron and steel consumed, 
and by 1995 could displace up to 13 pet. In aerospace 
applications, polymer composites are displacing alumi- 
num used for the "skin" of many new military aircraft and 
are expected to make large inroads in passenger airliner 
manufacturing during the next decade. Composites 
currently account for less than 3 pet of passenger airframe 
weight, but are forecast to account for as much as 65 pet 
during the 1990's (66). As a result, the proportion of 
passenger airframe weight composed of aluminum may 
decrease from the current 80 pet to as little as 20 pet by 
2000. 

The U.S. motor vehicle industry offers the greatest 
market potential for polymers by virtue of its demand for 
large volumes of steel that could be replaced by plastics. 
However, the outcome of materials competition in the 
industry is far from decided. An automobile executive 
contacted for this paper states that "steel still could be the 
'high-tech material' of the future" (4). High-strength 
specialty steels coupled with new corrosion-resistant 
processes are being developed to complete more effectively 
with polymers in car and truck manufacturing. The wide 
forecast range shown for the year 2000 in table 3 reflects 
differences among experts interviewed about the degree of 
plastics substitution in the industry. If polymers can be 
developed for use as chassis parts (e.g., frames, wheels, 
and suspensions) as well as body panels, the upper end of 
the range shown in table 3 becomes more probable. 

While the full extent of substitution by plastics is still 
debated in the motor vehicle industry, much greater use of 
reinforced polymers in the aerospace industry is virtually 
assured, at least in the military segment. This increased 
use appears inevitable for several reasons. First, for 
military aircraft, the primary goals of greater maneuver- 
ability, speed, and range are achieved most efficiently 
through weight reduction, and composites promise greater 
weight savings than any other material. Second, for all 
aircraft, the longer assembly line time and low unit 
output (as contrasted with mass-produced automobiles) is 
attuned to the longer curing and molding time required 
for polymer materials and parts. Finally, unlike their 
automotive counterparts, manufacturers of high-priced 
aircraft can more easily pass the greater costs of 
high-strength composites on to their customers. 

3. As described in the preceding section, commercial 
use of advanced ceramics for nonelectrical purposes 
(principally as parts for motor vehicle engines) could 



14 



increase significantly during the 1990's, but these mate- 
rials will not displace large quantities of metal in this 
century. Although ceramics are not expected to be used 
(except as coatings) in jet aircraft engines until well 
beyond the year 2000, they offer advantages that virtually 
ensure their eventual substitution for some quantity of 
critical metals and/or alloys in the aerospace industry. 



CONDITIONS INFLUENCING SUBSTITUTION 

1. Metal and glass producers have taken two 
approaches in response to strong competition from new 
materials: (1) increase R&D to improve competitiveness of 
current products, and (2) diversify production to include 
new materials. Examples among the first approach are the 
aluminum-lithium alloys developed to compete in the 
aerospace industry, and the new steels especially de- 
veloped to match automobile manufacturing needs. 
Producers that have taken the second approach include a 
major U.S. glass container company that also produces 
plastic bottles, and domestic metal companies that have 
acquired high-tech materials firms or participate in joint 
production ventures with them. These latter companies 
are, in effect, wisely "hedging their bets" by seeking a 
strong market position regardless of which competing 
materials gain dominance. 

2. New materials emerge first in those markets 
where superior performance properties rather than lower 
costs appear to be the principal consideration. Thus, 
advanced materials are prominent in high-tech industries 
(e.g., aerospace) where product performance criteria are so 
high that there is no alternative but to develop better 
materials despite initial costs. However, costs eventually 
determine both the pace and extent of the substitution 
process beyond the initial market. As increased output 
and production experience reduce unit costs, new 'mate- 
rials become more competitive and can capture additional 
markets. At this point, it becomes very difficult for 
conventional materials producers to reverse the substitu- 
tion trend and regain their original market shares. 

3. The only relevant cost consideration in materials 
substitution today is the so-called "total package cost" 
(30). This cost includes not only the price of the material 
itself, but also all other costs involved in using the 
material to manufacture a product. Many new materials 
are priced higher than the conventional materials they 
displace. However, these new materials may be preferred 
because they offer the opportunity to reduce manufactur- 
ing costs sufficiently to offset their higher prices. For 
example, a one-piece plastic unit that replaces an item 
built from several parts could reduce assembly costs. 
Because total package costs are so important, materials 
producers now must work more closely with parts 
designers and other manufacturing system specialists to 
develop a product that is competitive. 

4. Important considerations other than the intrinsic 
qualities of materials cost and performance also bear on 
the timing and rate of substitution. First, new materials 
must have a "proven track record"; i.e., firms are reluctant 
to incorporate a new material into their product until its 
performance record in other uses has proven reliability. 
Thus, superior performance in laboratory testing may be 
followed by years, or even decades, of observation (as in 
the aerospace industry where risks are high), before a new 
material is accepted as a substitute for a metal proven 



reliable by long use. Hesitancy to introduce a new 
material also results when a potential industrial user is 
not aware of all advantages offered by a new material, 
lacks assembly line experience with it, or would incur 
high retooling costs by converting to it. The cautious "wait 
and see" stance is an attitude that favors conventional 
materials already in place. It was observed in a diversity 
of industries regardless of whether the new material in 
question was for high-tech aerospace use or for common 
plumbing fixtures in the building trade. 

Another condition (beyond materials cost and capabil- 
ity) that affects the intensity and pace of substitution is 
the status of the additional infrastructure needed to 
supply raw materials and tooling, distribute parts and 
equipment, and provide the training and expertise needed 
by manufacturers to fabricate their products from new 
materials. The establishment of such an infrastructure 
may take many years and can delay the commercial 
introduction of a new material long after what might be 
expected if one were to consider only the superior 
performance characteristics of the material relative to 
price. 

5. The Federal Government exerts an important 
influence on advanced materials development through the 
individual research programs of its various agencies. 
These programs for advanced materials development total 
about $200 million annually (69) and entail funding for 
industry and university research as well as R&D by the 
Government itself. 30 In addition to funding and conducting 
research, the Federal Government can influence private 
sector materials development through its tax structure, 
antitrust requirements, incentives for capital investment, 
regulatory activities, and patent procedures. The com- 
bined impact of these activities on materials development 
and marketing is not clear, particularly given the new 
Federal tax reforms. 

It is important to recognize that Federal materials 
research primarily is driven by priorities other than new 
materials development per se. Federal agencies fund 
materials research principally because existing materials 
do not meet the needs of their specific program goals. For 
example, Department of Defense requirements for low- 
weight weapons or long-range aircraft create demands for 
lighter materials that in turn lead to new materials 
research. Thus, new domestic materials industries in 
effect have become the unplanned "spinoffs" of related 
Government objectives. 

One other aspect of Federal materials programs 
should be noted. Although each of these materials 
programs has individual objectives already judged to be in 
the national interest by the Executive Branch and 
Congress, it is clear that some of them have conflicting 
consequences; i.e., by supporting advanced materials 
R&D, the Government creates competitors for domestic 
mineral industries that also receive Government assist- 
ance. Perhaps this conflicting support ultimately produces 
improved materials through the rivalry it promotes. 
Nevertheless, Federal agencies should reexamine the net 
effects of their materials research very carefully and 
coordinate their efforts more closely to avoid major 
program conflicts. 

6. The Federal Government may not have sufficient 
information to develop appropriate policies regarding the 
impact of advanced materials. New polymer industries. 

^Funding for all Federal programs that directly or indirectly involve 
research on conventional materials as well as advanced materials may 
exceed $1 billion. 



15 



for example, are emerging and growing so rapidly that 
Government data collection has not been able to keep 
pace. Even basic data such as number of firms and 
establishments sometimes must be estimated. It is normal 
for information to lag behind developments in industries 
that typically are dynamic. However, projected growth 
rates for the advanced plastics and ceramics industries 
indicate that these sectors will become major, permanent 
market components that must be monitored effectively as 
interest in them expands and their economic and strategic 
importance increases. 

7. The displacement of outmoded materials by super- 
ior substitutes is a recurring theme in the history of 
materials science. Thus, it can be argued that the 



competitive advances made by modern materials repre- 
sent nothing more than the classic case of a substitute 
that cannot be deterred in the long run if it offers superior 
quality not otherwise available. Nevertheless, it is 
precisely the reach for higher quality, and thereby greater 
competitiveness, that motivates high-tech materials de- 
velopment and use. The resulting increase in competition 
has inflicted market losses on some conventional mate- 
rials producers. However, as indicated by several industry 
executives interviewed, the net result, or so-called 
"bottom line," of high-tech substitution is that consumers 
can purchase better, lower cost products, and that U.S. 
manufacturers have more opportunities to be competitive 
in world markets. 



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Patterson AFB). Private communication, Dec. 1985; available 
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30. Jewett, G.A. The Imperatives and Demands of the 
Marketplace Today. Can. Inst. Min. and Metall. (Montreal). CIM 
Bull., v. 79, No. 892, 1986, p. 46. 

31. Johnson, A. (Am. Iron & Steel Inst.). Private communica- 
tion, Apr. 1986; available upon request from B. Klein, BuMines, 
Washington, DC. 

32. Johnson, .W.R. (U.S. Air Force Materials Lab, Wright- 
Patterson AFB). Private communication, Dec. 1985; available 
upon request from B. Klein, BuMines, Washington, DC. 

33. Katz, R.N. (U.S. Army, Materials Technology Lab.). 
Private communication, Nov. 1985; available upon request from 
B. Klein, BuMines, Washington, DC. 

34. Kingsbury, G. Aerospace. Ch. in 1987 U.S. Industrial 
Outlook. U.S. Dep. Commerce, Washington, DC, Jan. 1987, pp. 
37/1-37/12. 

35. Kingsbury, G. (Int. Trade Admin., U.S. Dep. Commerce). 
Private communication, May 1986; available upon request from 
R. Balazik, BuMines, Washington, DC. 

36. MacAuley, P. Construction. Ch. in 1987 U.S. Industrial 
Outlook. U.S. Dep. Commerce, Washington, DC, Jan. 1987, pp. 
1/1-1/17. 

37. Manus, D. (Charlotte Pipe & Foundry Co.). Private 
communication, May 1986; available upon request from R. 
Balazik, BuMines, Washington, DC. 



16 



38. McGraw-Hill, Inc. (New York). Modern Plastics Encyc- 
lopedia: 1984-1985. No. 10A, Oct. 1984, 824 pp. 

39. Mearman, J. (Int. Trade Admin., U.S. Dep. Commerce). 
Private communication, June 1986; available upon request from 
R. Balazik, BuMines, Washington, D.C. 

40. Millar M., C. Hudson and S. LaBelle. Vehicle Character- 
izations for Long Range Technology Comparisons, Draft Report, 
Argonne Natl. Lab. (Argonne, IL), Mar. 1983, 145 pp.; available 
upon request from Argonne Natl. Lab., Argonne, IL. 

41. Mining Journal (London). A New Beginning. 1986 Min. 
Annu. Rev., June 1986, p. 5. 

42. National Academy of Sciences. Science and Technology — a 
Five Year Outlook, W.H. Freeman and Co., San Francisco, 1979, 
544 pp. 

43. Paterson, P. (U.S. Dep. Energy). Private communication, 
Apr. 1986; available upon request from R. Balazik, BuMines, 
Washington, DC. 

44. Persh, J. (U.S. Dep. Defense, Res. & En.). Private 
communication, Nov. 1985; available upon request from B. Klein, 
BuMines, Washington, DC. 

45. Peters, H.-J. Material Changes Reflect U.S. Economy Car 
Drive. Metal Bull. Monthly (London), Dec. 1985, pp. 13, 15. 

46. Plastics in Building Construction. V. 6, No. 12, 1983, p. 3. 

47. Clear Plastics Markets. V. 6, No. 1, 1982, p. 3. 

48. Future U.S. Construction Will Use More Plas- 
tics—New Report. V. 6, No. 3, 1983, p. 2. 

49. New Study Says Plastics in U.S. Building Now 

Mature. V. 8, No. 12, 1985, p. 2. 

50. U.S. Manufacturers Continue To Profit From 

Plastic Pipe. V. 3, No. 10, 1985, p. 2. 

51. U.S. Vinyl Window Market Predicted To Double 

by 1990. V. 8, No. 9, 1985, p. 2. 

52. Vinyl Will Be the Most Widely Used Siding 

Material by 1995. V. 8, No. 9, 1985, pp. 3-4. 

53. Vinyl Windows Take Bigger Share of Aluminum, 

Wood Window Markets. V. 8, No. 12, 1985, pp. 2-3. 

54. Predicasts, Inc. (Cleveland, OH). Plastics in Construction. 
1985, 122 pp. 

55. Port, O. Developments To Watch. Business Week, Nov. 11, 
1985, p. 128. 

56. Reed, J. (General Electric Co.). Private communication, 
Mar. 1986; available upon request from B. Klein, BuMines, 
Washington, DC. 

57. Schottman, F. (U.S. BuMines). Private communication, 
June 1986; available upon request from B. Klein, BuMines, 
Washington, DC. 

58. Shepard, P. (Plastic Pipe & Fittings Association). Private 
communication, May 1986; available upon request from R. 
Balazik, BuMines, Washington, DC. 



59. Smith, L. (Int. Trade Admin., U.S. Dep. Commerce). 
Private communication, May 1986; available upon request from 
R. Balazik, BuMines, Washington, D.C. 

60. Society of the Plastics Industry, Inc. (New York). Facts and 
Figures of the U.S. Plastics Industry. Sept. 1986, 134 pp. 

61. Sousa, L. (U.S. BuMines). Private communication, Jan. 
1986; available upon request from R. Balazik, BuMines, 
Washington, DC. 

62. Tenney, D.R., and H.B. Dexter. Advances in Composites 
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63. Trabacco, R. (U.S. Dep. Defense, Naval Air Dev. Center). 
Private communication, Dec. 1985; available upon request from 
B. Klein, BuMines, Washington, DC. 

64. Tumazos, J. (Oppenheimer & Co.). Private communication, 
Feb. 1986; available upon request from B. Klein, BuMines, 
Washington, DC. 

65. U.S. Department of Commerce, International Trade Admi- 
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Ceramics Industry. Mar. 1984, 46 pp. 

66. A Competitive Assessment of Selected Reinforced 

Composite Fibers. Sept. 1985, 48 pp. 

67. Potential Impact of Fiber Optics on Copper 

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to 21-15, 22-1 to 22-11, 23-1 to 23-16. 

69. U.S. General Accounting Office. Support for Development 
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Balazik, BuMines, Washington, DC. 

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Private communication, Feb. 1986; available upon request from 
R. Balazik, BuMines, Washington, DC. 

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74. Wrigley, A. Materials Mix. Am. Metal Mkt., Apr. 7, 1986, 
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75. Wrigley A. (Am. Metal Mkt.). Private commuication, Apr. 
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Washington, DC. 



17 



APPENDIX.— DEFINITIONS AND BACKGROUND DISCUSSION OF POLYMERS AND 

ADVANCED CERAMICS 



Definitions of technical terms used in this report and 
a description of the new materials industries examined 
herein are presented below as background for the 
preceding analyses. For this study, the materials industry 
is defined as those commercial activities involved in the 
design and production of substances used for the fabrica- 
tion of all manufactured products. This report is focused 
on two of the many new materials encompassed by the 
advanced materials industry: polymers and ceramics. 

POLYMERS AND POLYMER-BASED 
COMPOSITES 

Polymers, commonly known as "plastics" or "resins," 
are synthesized materials (usually organic) that can be 
molded at temperatures of only a few hundred degrees 
Fahrenheit and can retain a given shape when cooled. 
These materials are composed of large molecular chains 
that commonly link atoms of carbon, hydrogen, and 
oxygen, but also may contain other elements such as 
silicon, nitrogen, and fluorine. In the broadest sense, 
polymers include the more elastic rubbers. This paper, 
however, focuses on polymers and excludes rubbers. 

Among the polymers are the commodity plastics 
(high-volume production, low unit value) and the en- 
gineering or high-performance plastics (low-volume pro- 
duction, high unit value). The engineering plastics have 
greater strength and/or can withstand significantly 
higher temperatures than the commodity plastics. 
Another classification of plastics are the thermoplastics 
and the thermosetting plastics or thermosets. Thermo- 
plastics can be repeatedly softened and rehardened by 
raising and lowering the temperature, respectively; 
thermosets after hardening cannot be resoftened by 
increasing the temperature. Resins refer to organic 
liquids or solids that are themselves plastics and are the 
building blocks of more complex plastics compounds. 

A composite refers to the combination of a matrix, or 
binding material, through which a different, reinforcing 
material is distributed. Although these two materials 
maintain separate identities, the composite formed by 
them exhibits properties superior to those of both. Metals, 
ceramics, and polymers are used to form the matrix and 
the reinforcing materials of various composites. This 
report is concerned with composites in which the matrix 
material is plastic, and in a few cases where the 
reinforcing material is plastic as well. The original and 
best known composite is fiberglass, consisting of glass 
reinforcing fibers and a plastic matrix. 

Plastics recently have become the most widely used 
material in the United States. On a volume basis, their 
consumption now exceeds that of steel, copper, and 
aluminum combined. Although once perceived as a 
material only for cheap or shoddy goods, plastics have 
vastly improved during the past decade and have captured 
so many markets that they truly seem to be everywhere. 

Cars are constructed of it, and boats and even 
airplanes, to say nothing of computer hous- 
ings and camera bodies and fishing rods and 
watch cases and suitcases and cookware and 
roller skates and toothpaste tubes. It has 
replaced the glass in our spectacles, the 
paper in our grocery bags, the wood in our 



tennis rackets, the cotton in our clothing . . . 
(etc). ... (It is used) from outer space to the 
depths of the sea . . . (14Y 

Table A-l shows the markets for plastics sales in the 
United States during 1984 and highlights those sectors 
where it is reasonably certain that plastics substituted for 
metals and glass materials. Based on this table, it can be 
assumed that at least 24 pet of plastics sold in the United 
States currently are consumed in place of metals and glass 
(primarily in the packaging and motor vehicle industries). 
This is a conservative estimate because it does not include 
demand in markets where there is uncertainty about the 
types of material replaced by plastics (e.g., both wood and 
metal are competitors of plastic in furniture manufactur- 
ing). Analysis of each major market shown here with 
significant identified competition between plastics and 
metals or glass is provided in the analysis and conclusion 
sections of this report. 

Table A-1. — Major U.S. markets with significant competition 
between plastics and metals or glass, 1985 

DioeHr-e e'oi * Sales replacing 
Market MM lb metals or glass ' 

Transportation 1 ,989 90 

Building and construction 10,038 43 

Packaging 12,774 17 

Electrical and electronic 2,659 (') 

Furniture and furnishings 2,107 (') 

Industrial machinery 364 90 

Consumer and institutional 

products 3,975 Q 

Adhesives, inks, coatings 2,142 (') 

Other 5,122 NA 

Total or average 1 41,170 24 

NA Not available. 

'For some industries so many additional materials (wood, paper, textiles) 
are competitors of plastics that no precise measure of market relationships 
between plastics and metals or glass could be developed. Therefore, the 
resulting 24-pct total share is a conservative estimate because it excludes 
markets where substitution by plastics is displacing unknown quantities of 
metals and glass. 

Although the first synthetic plastics date back to the 
1860's in the United States (and to the 1850's in Europe), 
the most important U.S. developments in polymer science 
have occurred in this century {60). The commercial 
development of today's modern thermoplastics (polyvinyl 
chloride, polyethylene, polystyrene, etc.) began in the 
1930's (60). Shortages during World War II led to 
increased demand for plastics as substitutes for materials 
(such as natural rubber) and promoted polymer research 
(60). During the next decade, large-scale production of 
plastics reduced their costs dramatically and they began 
to compete with traditional materials such as wood, paper, 
metal, and glass. Production rates stagnated in the late 
1960's, but there has been a resurgence of the plastics 
industry during recent years due to rapid advances in 
polymer technology, particularly the development of 
polymer blends (analogous to alloys) with properties 
vastly superior to those of their individual constituents 
(61). Thus, plastics producers believe that they are 
entering a new period of rapid growth. Studies indicate 
that average annual growth in domestic sales of plastics 
will be about 3 to 5 pet to 1990 and 4 pet thereafter to 1995 

'Underlined numbers in parentheses refer to items in the list of 
references preceding this appendix. 



18 



(5, 49). However, growth rates as high as 25 pct/yr are 
forecast in the 1990's for certain types of high- 
performance polymers, such as reinforced plastics and 
composites (12, 22). 

Today, the plastics industry (SIC 2821 and 3079) is 
comprised of more than 10,000 firms throughout the 
United States with over 650,000 employees producing 
resins, machinery, fabricated products, and molds (5). 
Well over 10,000 varieties of plastic are marketed 
domestically (14). Prices for these materials range from 
less than a dollar per pound to hundreds and even 
thousands of dollars per pound for more exotic composites 
needed by the aerospace industry. The average price for 
all plastics produced in 1984 was 43 cents per pound (60). 
The value of industry shipments during that year was 
over $40 billion. About half of this production was 
accounted for by the six largest U.S. plastics producers 
(Dow Chemical, Du Pont, Exxon, Mobil Oil, Union 
Carbide, and Amoco) (60). 

Oil and chemical corporations lead the list of major 
domestic producers because the principal raw materials 
for plastics are petrochemicals (ethylene, propylene, and 
benzene) derived from petroleum. Petroleum will continue 
to be the source of nonfuel plastic feedstocks even after its 
use as a fuel begins to decline (42). In fact, oil and 
feedstock import dependence is an important concern for 
the U.S. polymer industry. Well into the future, other 
sources of carbon compounds for polymers, particularly 
coal, may replace petroleum; still later, plant matter may 
be converted into plastics. Most of the necessary conver- 
sion technology already exists for coal but not for 
vegetable matter. The economic feasibility of such 
conversion systems would depend on the scarcity of 
petroleum as plastics demand increases. 

The plastics industry also uses appreciable amounts 
of nonfuel industrial minerals as fillers, extenders, 
pigments and reinforcing agents in polymers and resins. 
These minerals include talc, mica, feldspar, boron, soda 
ash, and glass sand. Although their use is a boon for some 
producers, these minerals account for less than 5 pet of 
polymer materials, by weight. 



Advanced ceramics are low- volume, high-unit- value 
products that have been developed only during the last 30 
yr. These new materials are unlike the common high- 
volume, low-unit-value ceramic products of clay, glass, 
brick and tile produced since ancient times. Advanced 
ceramics are valued for their thermal, wear, and corrosion 
resistance; electrical insulation properties; high magnetic 
permeability; and special optical features (fiber optics is a 
ceramic). These characteristics make advanced ceramics 
potentially invaluable for use in high-performance en- 
gines, machines, other devices, and electronic compo- 
nents. Much of the attention given to advanced ceramics 
in recent years concerns its potential for use in automobile 
engines. Eventually these ceramics could act as substi- 
tutes for cobalt and other critically needed metals in jet 
aircraft engines, and thereby help reduce U.S. dependence 
on strategic material imports (65). 

Unfortunately, the chemical structure that provides 
the superior properties cited above also imparts undesir- 
able attributes, especially extreme brittleness that can 
cause shattering with little or no warning. Moreover, the 
costly and labor-intensive techniques used to fabricate 
advanced ceramic products make them relatively expen- 
sive. Consequently, substantial research is still necessary 
before the inherent problems of ceramics will allow 
significant replacement of metals. 

The advanced ceramics industry currently encompas- 
ses two principal activities — the production of electronic 
components and the production of engineering products 
and parts. Together, these two businesses had markets 
totaling an estimated $5.1 billion in 1986 (65). At least 50 
major U.S. firms are engaged in each activity (65). 

Some documented forecasts of demand for advanced 
ceramics are available. Future demand will depend 
considerably on the degree of substitution that ceramics 
attains in end uses such as electronics, cutting tools, and 
heat engines. In a 1984 report, the Department of 
Commerce estimated the projected shipments of advanced 
ceramics shown in table A-2. 

Table A-2. — Projected U.S. shipments of advanced ceramics, 
by end use (1980 dollars) (65) 



ADVANCED CERAMICS 

Ceramics are materials composed of inorganic, non- 
metallic powdered compounds that have been consolidated 
by the application of high-temperature heat (65). These 
compounds commonly include silicon and alumina, but 
the high-technology ceramics examined in this study can 
be composed of boron carbide, silicon carbide, silicon 
nitride, beryllium oxide, magnesium oxide (often in 
combination with other oxides), nonmetallic magnetics, 
and ferroelectrics (69). 



End use 



1980 



1990 



2000 



Electronics 

Cutting tools 

Wear parts 

Heat engines 

Other 

Total 601 



MMS 


pet 


MM$ 


pd 


MMS 


pet 


534 


89 


1.900 


75 


3.485 


59 


45 


7.5 


380 


15 


960 


16 


20 


3 


180 


7 


540 


9 








56 


2 


840 


15 


2 


05 


15 


1 


70 


1 



100 2.531 100 5.895 100 



Discussions of expected applications for advanced 
ceramics within specific industrial sectors are provided in 
the "Industry Analyses and Forecasts" section of the main 
text. 



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